November 27 reported that two days, Copenhagen finally come two other good news: December 9, Barack Obama, Wen Jiabao will arrive in this fairy tale-rich countries, to attend the UN summit on climate change.
November 26, the Chinese government officially announced its action to control greenhouse gas emissions goals, decided to go to 2020 Chinese carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP compared to 2005 dropped 40% -45%.
Just as the Chinese Government made this commitment the day before, the U.S. government has also made its own emission reduction commitment: in 2020 U.S. greenhouse gas emissions will be decreased by 17% compared with 2005, 2050, down 83%.
Sino-US two great powers of greenhouse gas emissions almost at the same time to make quantified emission reduction commitments, so that the Copenhagen meeting of gloom suddenly have a sense of a way out.
It is worth noting that the United States is now equal to only target set in 1990, based on the reduction of 4%, which developed and developing countries on the basis of 1990 levels of emissions reductions of at least 40% of the demand far.
National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration, deputy director of Lu in 26, an exclusive interview, in particular, to remind the Chinese government has always said to do, but as a developing country, China’s future emissions are carried out and developed countries are also how much money can provide, technical support are closely related.
The long-term climate negotiator of China’s Lu emphasized, “for developing countries, there is no ‘voluntary emissions reductions’ one said.”
He said that China’s emission reduction target is a relative reduction commitments to reduce carbon emission intensity is relative volume, and the developed countries the United States made the absolute commitment to carbon reduction is not the same.
Sino-US commitment: a major political stand
“21st Century”: The Danish ambassador to China, Ye Pu-24, declared that the meeting will reach a binding political document. The U.S. government yesterday announced a reduction targets, the Sino-US has released its own emission reduction programs have any effect on the Copenhagen meeting?
Lu Du: China and the United States also announced ambitious plans will indeed have an appointment with the outside world the impression of a Sino-US, but really is not an appointment, I am aware of.
China and the U.S. to make such a major move, the success of the Copenhagen meeting will have a critical impact. Their commitment is an important political gesture, which is the most meaningful figure. This means that the commitment will not be a dead letter. As a result, the Copenhagen negotiations in a lot of things could be cured.
The Ambassador of Denmark to say is more reliable. Copenhagen political momentum will be fixed. However, even reached a binding political agreement, there are still many technical problems to be solved, these problems are not able to complete two weeks of the meeting resolved. I estimate that the international community needs a couple of years time to a specific implementation of this political agreement.
“21st Century”: You have mentioned that China should not be lightly mandatory emission reductions. Today, the State Council, China’s GDP unit by 2020 carbon emissions in 2005 on the basis fell 40% to 45%. How to understand the Chinese government this commitment?
Lu Du: As a developing country, to quantify the absolute emission reduction is impossible. China made this commitment is a relative reduction, reducing the relative amount of carbon emission intensity.
Unit of GDP to reduce carbon emissions and reduce energy prior to China’s proposed emission intensity is basically the same. Is a linear relationship between the two. Of course, there are slight differences between the two. Greenhouse gas emissions come from energy, but also partly from methane and other non-energy emissions.
“21st Century”: The Chinese unit of GDP to reduce carbon emissions, “40% -45%” is based on what principles are worked out?
Du Lu: China is now proposed “40% -45%” figure is the result of this long-term research conclusions. Demonstrated before the national related organizations have been carried out six months, the parties raised in the discussion where a variety of programs, from 20% to 25% to 40% of all.
This quantitative measurement is very difficult, mainly based on economic models to perform. However, China’s development is a jump, not linear growth. By 2020, China’s economy can reach the size of the total amount of the energy structure will be how a situation, how to achieve energy efficiency levels, and the emission reductions are closely related, but is difficult to measure variables. The number of developed countries can provide financial, technical support is also a measure of the important factors to consider when.
It now appears that we are finally in a variety of programs, select a standard higher.
“21st Century”: international public opinion has recently been the issue of emission reductions to put pressure on China. Many media reports, both belong to the emerging powers, India, Brazil has made “voluntary reductions” commitment to China has also exerted pressure on the invisible. Will these pressures have an impact?
Lu Du: Generally speaking, the international pressure on China is yes. But Chinese leaders have always been based on national conditions, choose their own approach to development, and will not be affected by pressure. We consistently adhere to the independent foreign policy. China to make such a commitment, show China is serious about the attitude of doing things, but also shows that China hopes that through their own political efforts to promote the progress of the Copenhagen conference.
For developing countries, there is no “voluntary commitment” to say, in the international negotiation process, there is no “voluntary commitment” provisions. Emission reduction commitments for all developing countries and developed countries are the financial, technical support link.
Positive impact on economic performance reduction, but the Government is doing the forecasts, would certainly have taken into account on the pace of economic development, energy mix, energy efficiency, and many other effects.
I can not say “40% -45%” is a just right of the quantitative indicators. However, the Chinese government dare to make such a commitment that the Government after careful consideration, that through the efforts of such reductions it is possible to achieve.
Developing countries: adhere to the international climate negotiations the two-track system of
“21st Century”: The U.S. Government’s commitment in 2020 U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 2005 based on the reduction of 17%, which is in Europe, Japan and many other developed countries, a far cry from the commitment, how to analyze the developed countries a high-profile, low-key behind the political Economic logic is that?
Lu are: the U.S. government to make such a statement is to some extent we are helpless. Negotiators say they are America’s unwillingness to repeat the “Kyoto Protocol” the story of hope that the commitments made can be approved by Congress.
However, under intense pressure from international public opinion, the U.S. government had to come up with some figures, so the United States finally had to come up with the House of Representatives passed a 17% emission reduction target to meet the look.
The U.S. commitment and Europe, and Japan’s commitment to far apart, there are some specific reasons. In recent years, the United States increased by a lot of population decline in Europe and Japan a lot, huge population growth, emissions will certainly be.
Of course, the United States, 17% emission reduction commitment is relatively conservative, leaving room. On the contrary, Democratic Party of Japan government’s commitment to reduce emissions 25 percent beyond a lot of people expected, and Japan needs through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) purchased large quantities of emissions targets in order to fulfill its mandate.
“21st Century”: the Copenhagen Conference, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) will develop in the direction towards what?
Lu are: developed countries are the CDM mechanism of the buyer. After the meeting in Copenhagen, the developed countries to further reduce emissions in the affirmative. From the present experience, through the CDM and other international carbon trading mechanisms to stimulate the emission reduction, emission reduction costs are lower in all countries support.
Developing countries are the CDM mechanism of the supply side. They also need to after a meeting in Copenhagen, with the developed countries through financial and technical support to reduce emissions, but the resulting emission reductions can not be used to offset emission reduction obligations of the developed countries. The carbon market in the coming years, may be a shortage state.
“21st Century”: the Copenhagen meeting will not be fundamentally bury the “Kyoto Protocol”? The agreement reached at the meeting is not legally binding?
Lu are: the current international climate negotiations are two-rail system, both in the “Kyoto Protocol” under the framework of norms in developed countries emission reduction obligations of Parties to the Kyoto Protocol, the consultation mechanism, and in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, jointly discuss the well-developed countries, developing countries emission reduction obligations of the consultation mechanism.
The developed countries want to double-track and into a rail trying to do is the right of developing countries made firm. Even the Copenhagen meeting came to an agreement, developing countries also hope that the two-track system to continue.
The United States do not want a legally binding document. Their attitude is that the U.S. side will honor the agreement, but do not mention the United States legally binding.
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