Close to Copenhagen only 48-day point in time, the Chinese government think-tank to its prospects “forget a hexagram.”

October 22, from the China Meteorological Administration Economics of Climate Change Simulation Laboratory published “Climate Change Report (2009) – leads to Copenhagen” (hereinafter referred to as “Climate Change Report”), forecast that under the current situation Copenhagen, one of the possible is to reach a clear and protect the global climate, such as control of two degrees warming political agreement framework. However, the specific expression of long-term and medium-term emissions reduction targets, you need to follow-up to the difficult negotiations ahead.

The report by the China Meteorological Administration and Chinese Academy of Social Sciences set up two laboratories, the organization has long been engaged in China to address climate change and socio-economic issues important scientific research and international climate negotiations part of the senior who carried out the study 4 months results.

“Report of the arguments and the European Union and other countries have been used in the negotiations, including in particular marine and other industries to reduce emissions in negotiations.” Day conference, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Law, YI Xian-Liang, deputy director, said in the report data and ideas in the previous climate negotiations, as China’s “weapons” play a role, “the next 50-odd days, we would also like to use this book’s ideas and arguments.”

“United Nations meeting in Bangkok, we are worried about the prospect of Copenhagen.” Many times the experts involved in climate negotiations, the National Climate Center, deputy director Lu claimed that real negotiations may be “post-Copenhagen” era.

In this regard, “Climate change report” also made the same judgments as to the birth of the Kyoto Protocol, the negotiations lasted less than three years. And its entry into force, then after a long course of 8 years. Copenhagen’s history, the Kyoto Protocol, is likely to step followed suit.

Copenhagen: Four conflicts crisscross

July 8 summit in September United Nations summit, the G-20 summit, and the recent Bangkok conference, topics will be climate change negotiations in Copenhagen in December what kind of results? Chinese scholars are given a pre-judgment.

“Given the general convergence of scientific understanding and political will tones high, the Bali road map called for a global long-term goal of a common vision will almost certainly be able to form.” Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Urban Development and Environment Research Center Pan Jiahua, director of said that this vision will be reflected in the Copenhagen international documents, namely, by 2050 it will control two degrees Celsius temperature range, there may be corresponding to a specific description of the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases should be stable level, usually considered 450ppm.

Despite the possible vision after 50 years to reach agreement, but from the frequent international conferences, has not seen concrete measures to achieve this vision and commitment.

“Climate change report,” said the summit meeting this year, high-density, seems to be statesmen of the need to address climate change, urgency highly consistent. However, when it comes to specific goals, many homes “near” seeking “far.”

Namely, long-term goal, although there are differences in the emission reduction targets, but the two-degree temperature target, opponents widowed. Developed countries to the Bali road map to reach the required depth of the medium-term objectives, namely reduction in 2020 emission levels in 1990, cut emissions by 25% -40%, or avoided, or greatly reduced; or even abandon the Bali road map, commitments for developing countries are also involved in emission reduction targets.

For the reason, “Climate Change Report” gives the conclusion that climate change is behind the development of space, industrial competitiveness, international political and leadership issues, the North-South conflict, the contradiction between North, South, conflicts and contradictions in four pairs of great power conflicts criss-cross.

This is precisely why today’s most eye-catching as the participation in the negotiation of global climate change negotiations frequently fade.

“The situation is developing very fast, with a country’s attitude to the hands of the morning and afternoon are not the same.” YI Xian-liang.

“We at the United Nations climate negotiations At the meeting, and even the toilets are not afraid to came back changed.” Lu Du said with a smile, at present the new trend of climate change negotiations, the two-track negotiation or re-opened stove?

Before the agreement was negotiated by two-track system, that is, the developed countries in the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol negotiations, and enhance the implementation of the obligations of the United Nations Climate Change Convention negotiations (the Bali Action Plan). At the same time, the Bali meeting set for the above two a two-year timetable for negotiations.

“Now India and Japan would like to abandon this dual-track system, restart the stove talk, the evidence is clear.” Lu said both, he concluded that the Copenhagen meeting is unlikely to reach an agreement on the feasibility, operational, technical, in the next three years.

Chinese response: “voluntary commitment”

The next step in China on how to act?

“Climate Change Report” with the three definitions given some suggestions – China can not promise that China can agree that China can promise.

First, the report writers believe that China’s current stage of development, performance for high-speed industrialization and urbanization, large-scale, capital intensity is very high, energy consumption growth rate and thus is dependent on relatively cheap price of fossil energy as the driving force the carbon intensity per unit of output of carbon emissions are certainly high: higher than the traditional low levels of energy consumption of goods in the agricultural society, is also higher than the completion of the process of industrialization and urbanization, high technology-intensive post-industrial society. China’s population is still growing, infrastructure construction and not yet completed, the level of consumption to be further improved, technology-and capital capabilities also relatively limited.

“In such a situation, the Chinese do not yet have the conditions promised to limit the absolute amount of emission reduction targets, but also can not be lightly the exact time of peak emissions.” Writers said.

China could agree to protect the global climate, is the common responsibility of mankind. The current limit is not committed to emission reduction goals, does not mean that China does not assume the obligation to protect the global climate does not mean that China’s future will not promise a specific reduction in restrictions.

“At present, China has not openly opposed to two degrees Celsius temperature-controlled long-term goals, identity development model of low-carbon economy.” Pan-hua.

In the experts opinion, China can promise is that some of the content of voluntary commitments. As President Hu Jintao’s September 22 speech on the United Nations climate summit.

“Obviously based on national sustainable development goals of the voluntary action. Such actions, although there is no in international agreements, but reflects a certain degree of voluntary commitment to nature.” Pan said.

Negotiations are the interests of game, the right of the negotiations and results of discourse can not do without technical support.

“We are actively involved in the fifth round of IPCC assessments, has reached its final stage.” After the China Meteorological Zheng light interview with this reporter said, IPCC (ie in November 1998, World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Program jointly established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has been an independent, scientific authority of popping up on the previous climate talks have a significant impact in this field who is walking in front of whoever has more right to speak.

Zheng said China Meteorological Administration, Science and Technology is currently being put in much efforts to improve China’s capabilities in this field.

In addition to technical, negotiation is more effective ideas come from. The experts presented recommendations for developing countries.

“Rather than dwell specific emission reduction targets in developed countries and the amount of commitment, it is better to find ways to let them come up with money.” Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing University, Professor Fang-yun, said he thinks single from a scientific point of view, even long-term wish King – by 2050 it will control two degrees Celsius temperature range, which is corresponding to the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration levels of 450ppm should be stable and achieve them is also lack of scientific considerations, that this goal both scientific and practical feasibility of not been scientifically recognized.

“If you accomplish this goal, in 2005 to begin to take measures to reduce emissions and require emissions in many countries is almost should be negative. As far as practical terms, most countries can not do it.” Fang said, “unless human new energy, new technologies have a major breakthrough. ”

Therefore, the parties recommended that developing countries should focus more on the fight for financially developed countries, and then put into research and development of new energy sources so as to be truly “scientific” basis to control greenhouse gas emissions targets.

replica watches, fake watches, replica handbags, replica Rolex watches